By Abbey Makoe
The politics of South Africa, the SADC region’s biggest economy, has entered unchartered territory whose ramifications could be felt near and far.
For the first time since the dawn of democracy in April 1994, Nelson Mandela’s African National Congress (ANC) failed to win an outright majority in the national elections.
Many political analysts had expected the ANC to poll below the 50% mark in the May 29 elections. However, the party that has based its huge popularity on the history of liberation fell much lower beneath the 50-percentage point, landing on an incredible 40%.
The implications of the ANC’s fall from the pound seat are already beginning to be felt inside SA. At the first sitting of Parliament in Cape Town this past Friday, the ANC had to cobble together a coalition with the predominantly white Democratic Alliance (DA), a party associated by the ANC’s rank and file with the preservation of white privilege.
But whether the ANC’s brilliance, or lack thereof, would soon be evident through the party’s success in putting together a governing coalition in the aftermath of its dismal showing in the recent elections – well, the jury is out.
The ANC refer to the “grand coalition” it has formed with the DA, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and the Patriotic Alliance (PA) as a “Government of National Unity” (GNU). It is hard to accept the ANC’s logic in the above description.
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There are 18 parties in SA’s parliament, and the 3rd (Umkhonto We Sizwe Party (MKP) and 4th (Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) have outrightly rejected any cooperation with the DA and the Freedom Front-Plus, a right-wing white party.
In a nutshell, it is tempting to laud the ANC for its display of political mastery, be it in the short term. No one knows for sure how long the ANC and DA’s marriage of convenience will last. There are glaring ideological differences between the two leading parties in SA politics. We will put them under a microscope shortly.
Right now, great due needs to be given to Cyril Ramaphosa and his ANC for rising spectacularly from the proverbial ashes. To assume the role of “nation-builder” by leading a GNU – imperfect though it is – deserves full credit.
But even more, that the ANC could use its hastily reconfigured political landscape to climb to the position of president and speaker of Parliament is no mean feat. Ramaphosa was elected president ahead of the EFF’s leader Malema. A mere fortnight ago, while languishing in the embarrassing 40-percentage point in the elections, many had begun to write the obituary of a party that has suddenly risen meteorically like a phoenix.
As I opined earlier, you’ve got to give credit where credit is due.
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For the uninitiated, behind the ANC’s 40% lay the DA at 22%. But let me paraphrase for simplicity’s sake: The SA National Assembly, or Parliament, is made up of 400 seats (Members of Parliament). The ANC’s 40% translates into 159 seats, and the DA’s 87 seats. In tow is the IFP at 17 seats.
A simple majority of 200-plus 1 is therefore guaranteed. Former President Jacob Zuma’s MK Party managed an impressive 58 seats at the first attempt, making the party the 3rd biggest. It is followed by Julius Malema’s EFF at 39 seats.
All parties to the left of the ANC, collectively, are a paltry minority. Apart from the MKP, which boycotted the first sitting of parliament, and EFF, many are 2-seats or 1-seat parties. The shrewd ANC appear to have ensured securing the top positions for itself. These are the Presidency, which saw the incumbent re-elected, and the Speaker, which has been given to the ANC’s Thoko Didiza, former Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries.
In return, the ANC rewarded the DA with the Deputy Speaker position, which went to Ms Annelie Lotriet. And, in the politically-volatile province of KwaZulu-Natal, the IFP was rewarded with the Premiership, given to Thami Ntuli. It is not clear at this early stage how exactly the ANC intend to skin the cat. President Ramaphosa’s inauguration should take place shortly after swearing in on June 19. Only then can we tell – on the basis of evidence – what colours the mansion will be painted.
The much-anticipated allocation of cabinet positions will once and for all reveal the details of the pre-cabinet seating negotiations that were shrouded in a veil of secrecy. Indeed, as the idiom goes – “the devil is in the detail”.
Let us look at some of the key points of possible head-on collision: Foreign policy. SA under the ANC has been at the forefront of international intervention to halt Israel’s genocide against the Palestinian people. Pretoria’s support for Palestine is legendary. It was Mandela who proclaimed that SA can never claim to be free whilst Palestine is not free.
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Relations between Mandela and Palestinian freedom fighter and leader, Yasser Arafat, were T-connected. Similarly, the ANC’s support for Cuba is non-negotiable. Additionally, there is the small matter of BRICS, a strategic geopolitical bloc that has grown into a catalyst for the Global South in the reconfiguration of the international world order. One of the main programmes of BRICS is better known as “de-dollarization”, where BRICS members have dropped the use of the US dollar in inter-state trade among members of the bloc.
In fact, BRICS is in the final stages of launching its own currency to counter the US dollar. Least but not last, BRICS is finalising plans to establish an alternative international payment system to the US and Western-dominated SWIFT system. SA under the ANC is an integral party to all these plans, which are taboo in the DA’s political playbook.
Nationally, the ANC is the protagonist of the minimum wage law.
The DA loathes this law, and believes that in a free-market economic system laced with capitalist traits such as SA’s, “he who pays the piper calls the tune”.
Also, another point of friction is likely to be in the National Health Insurance Act, which President Ramaphosa hurriedly signed into law a couple of weeks before the elections. The DA, expressing deep disapproval in line with the sentiments of Big Business, promised to take the ANC government to court in a bid to rescind the signing of the bill into law.
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There are many points of divergence between the ANC, the DA and other partners in the GNU, too many to mention. But the lure of political power, job security and access to resources, among others, are by far more magnetic in nature than mere principles.
The ANC’s Secretary-General, Fikile Mbalula, quizzed by the media about whether the DA will not oppose the country’s established foreign policy systems and networks, replied with a sharp “no”.
The establishment of the GNU -to which both the ANC and the DA have appended their signatures – Mbalula argued, does not render individual parties lifeless. “Nothing will change,” he said categorically.
There are many in the ANC-led Tripartite Alliance that comprises the SA Communist Party and giant trade union federation COSATU who are aggrieved by the cooperation with the DA. The very thought of it all does not sit too well on their chest and they have made it publicly clear.
One thing certain is that the GNU is an animal that will test the nature, make and form of the glue that has kept the “broad-based church”, as the ANC is called, together through all the years.
*Abbey Makoe is Founder and Editor-in-Chief: Global South Media Network