Formula 1’s first representative practice session of 2024 featured an unusual final classification, with Mercedes locking out the top two spots, four different constructors’ in the top five and the best Red Bull only sixth. But how much can we read into any of that?
Mercedes could be in the fight for the front row
No one was expecting Mercedes to trouble the top of the timesheets in FP2, when teams got down to business with their first proper low-fuel runs on soft tyres of the weekend – but that’s exactly what transpired, as Lewis Hamilton headed George Russell.
How realistic is that pace, though? Reigning world champion Max Verstappen reckoned “Some people around us already turned up the engine a bit in terms of top speed” and our data team says the telemetry suggests Mercedes had more power than their competitors.
Digging into the data, Mercedes are just 0.08s off Red Bull in terms of qualifying simulation – marking them out as potential challengers for the front row.
Trackside chief Andrew Shovlin said that after the test, they were “most concerned about our single lap pace” and after having both drivers in the sim between the test and this weekend, based on Thursday’s running “it looks like we have improved”.
The race pace isn’t quite so good, though, with our data putting Mercedes third, behind Red Bull and Ferrari, 0.31s off the pace. “We need to keep our heads down, keep working on the set-up,” said Hamilton when we chatted post-session. “Our long-run pace is nowhere near the Red Bull.”
Red Bull remain the favourites for the win
It was a surprise to see Red Bull fail to break the top five in practice, with Verstappen ending up sixth – but he didn’t seem that concerned when we spoke straight after the session.
“It was not too bad,” he said. “I think it’s very close. There were a few balance issues from front to rear, but nothing big. I’m not too worried about the gap to P1 (which was 0.477s) but it’s going to be very close”.
It could well be close in qualifying, with Red Bull only having a slender advantage over Mercedes and Ferrari in qualifying trim – but that gap grows to 0.17s over Ferrari and 0.31s over Mercedes in race pace.
Our data shows Verstappen had the lowest degradation of all the drivers in the long runs – and was likely not pushing to the limit, as the team focused on their own programme to best understand their brand-new car over longer stints rather than worrying about taking fuel out.
Ferrari set to be a force in the Grand Prix
Ferrari ended the season as one of the strongest cars – if not the strongest – in qualifying trim, the Prancing Horse able to keep the tyre in the right window for one flying lap.
They seem to have traded some of that pace for better race pace this year, but they remain within touching distance of challenging Red Bull for the front row.
It’s the race pace that continues to be their biggest improvement, with Charles Leclerc saying it “looked quite good” with regards to tyre degradation (which was their Achilles heel last year) and the “feeling was quite good” on the long run on the soft tyre.
The kind of pace Leclerc and Sainz showed on high fuel suggests that they are both in contention for the podium – and if Sergio Perez is unable to match teammate Verstappen and Ferrari get their strategy right, there’s a strong chance it could be two red cars on the rostrum.
McLaren and Aston Martin fighting for the best of the rest
McLaren and Aston Martin have resumed their fight for P4 in the constructors’ championship, with nothing to choose between them when comparing qualifying pace – with just 0.06s separating the duo.
That gap would likely have been bigger, though, had Norris not made a mistake on his solo soft tyre flying lap – which resulted in him ending up bottom of the timesheets in FP2.
The papaya cars have the edge over billionaire Lawrence Stroll’s team when it comes to race pace, though – and by quite some margin, the gap is just over 0.3s.
Fernando Alonso was the stronger of the two Aston Martin drivers, his run on the soft tyre in FP2 particularly eye-catching – the pace relative to his rivals catching the double world champion by surprise.
RB appear to be the dark horse
RB have consistently played down their hopes for this season, despite an impressive showing in testing – and that approach continued despite another encouraging day of practice on Thursday.
Daniel Ricciardo had the smoother day, the Australian saying that if they can “put it all together, we can fight for Q3 tomorrow and points on Saturday”.
It was a more challenging day for Tsunoda, however, he said that “even if making it into Q3 seems difficult at the moment, I’m confident we can turn things around in time for qualifying”.
According to our data, they are the sixth best in both metrics. In qualifying trim, they’re 0.72s off the pace, but only a tenth adrift of Aston Martin and a tenth and a half away from McLaren.
Regarding race pace, they’re a match for Aston Martin – and very much in the fight for points. (Formula1)
