By Bahle Gama
South African police are on high alert following a threat that highlights concerns that the upcoming elections could be disrupted by violence, intimidation, and possible boycotts in certain ears of the neighbouring country.
The 14-page report and analysis conducted by the police crime intelligence unit was presented on Friday, May 17 to the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) and senior police officials.
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The concerns have reportedly been echoed by several researchers, who fear that threatening rhetoric from some key political players provides fertile ground for discontent.
The threats and uncertainty of discontent are expected to strain business and investor confidence in South Africa, despite the level of readiness by security agencies.
According to the report, the collective responsibility is to ensure a conducive environment for the May 29 elections, aiming for a process that is both free and fair, devoid of any form of intimidation or violence.
The report warns of direct risks such as potential trucker strikes and disruptions to the election process, including court rulings affecting participation.
It identified hotspots include political disruptions and protests, with potential threats to voting stations. According to the report, these include the IFP supporters in Zululand who have disrupted rival campaigns,
ANC supporters who have disrupted IFP gatherings in Mhlabuyalingana, posters removal in KwaZulu-Natal, and Gauteng which fuel campaign instability.
Also, the Imbilane community and taxi association’s election disruption plan in Ulundi is pending a court decision on the police officials’ case. Additionally, there are concerns about arms theft from police stations.
The report further states that indirect risks involve deliberate tampering with services and the spread of fake news.
Security measures which are said to be in place include the involvement of private security firms and the military, with authorities prepared to address any violence or disruptions during the election period.
In March, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced that law enforcement agencies were preparing for all scenarios to ensure free and fair elections.
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“I want to make it clear to anyone who is threatening any form of unrest that there will be follow-up, and they will be arrested,” said Ramaphosa.
It was later announced that 17,000 police officers would be deployed to high-risk areas to monitor the election period.
The report states that the prevailing uncertainties around the pending South African election and its outcome have contributed to business confidence being brittle in the first quarter of 2024.
“The uncertain political outlook is now also weighing on investors and the markets as to possible election outcomes,” reads the report.
According to the Institute of Security Studies (ISS) researchers, the July 2021 riots were a wake-up call for law enforcement, businesses, and communities.
This has been evident in improved communication and coordination by police and private security as well as seemingly better state and private intelligence-gathering systems which should prevent large-scale violence compared to 2021.
“The state seems to be taking threats of electoral violence more seriously,” said the researchers.
BusinessTech reported that award-winning economist Dawie Roodt is concerned about the possibility of violence before, during, and after the elections, due to ominous rhetoric from some political leaders, compounded with other social woes.
“This is a dangerous time for South Africa, and I am concerned about the possibility of riots,” said Roodt.
Roodt fears that divisive political rhetoric and unrealistic promises could exacerbate tensions, and hoped that all political, civil, and religious leaders ensure that they do not incite any violence during a sensitive time.
According to BusinessTech, Roodt, BMI and other researchers identify compounding societal challenges, including rampant unemployment, entrenched structural inequality, and pervasive poverty, as pivotal drivers of violence, with the potential to precipitate a devastating cascade effect.
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Roodt mentioned that such uncertainty is and will continue to strain business and investor confidence.
This was echoed by Oxford Economics’ senior political analyst, Louw Nel who stated that the lack of inclusive growth is the most significant risk factor, with weak economic growth, high inequality, and unemployment starting the economic policy environment.
“High inequality and social polarization elevate the risk of protests and unrest, with political violence risks above the African median,” said Nel.
The analyst expressed his worry over a repeat of past violence, especially as financial markets struggle with election uncertainty.
