Say goodbye to the old “special relationship” between Britain and the United States. Say hello to a new special relationship across the English Channel.
As U.S. President Donald Trump puts transatlantic ties under strain, the European Union and United Kingdom have much to gain from joining forces.
A security pact spanning economics, energy, the environment, technology and finance – as well as defence – would rise to the occasion. The main obstacle is lack of vision on both sides.
Britain and the EU, of course, have a painful recent history. Brexit tore the UK out of the bloc five years ago. Both former partners are still suffering psychological wounds.
But Europe is now at the epicentre of a geopolitical earthquake. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was bad enough.
Trump’s tariff war, combined with his limited support for Kyiv and regular musings about whether to stick by the NATO defence pact, heightens Europe’s vulnerability.
The U.S. last week imposed a blanket tariff of “only” 10% on imports from the UK, half the 20% it slapped on what Trump described as the “pathetic, opens new tab” EU.
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But it is hard to justify any American tariff on Britain, which is a close ally that has fought shoulder to shoulder with the U.S. in countless wars.
So much for the special relationship that countless presidents and prime ministers have trumpeted. So much for King Charles inviting Trump to Britain for an unprecedented second state visit.
BROAD VIEW OF SECURITY
Prime Minister Keir Starmer promised to “reset” relations with the EU after his Labour Party last year won power, replacing the Conservatives who had championed Brexit. He will host a summit with EU leaders on May 19 to take that idea forward.
But the promised reset is not yet ambitious. Starmer has ruled out joining the EU’s single market or customs union, let alone accepting its arrangements for free movement of people or rejoining the bloc.
Instead, he is focussing on ideas such as energy cooperation, linking Britain’s and the EU’s carbon trading schemes, and a deal to reduce border checks on agricultural products.
Meanwhile, Brussels sees little need to change the trade deal between the two partners, which comes up for review next year.
The EU’s attitude is that Britain should not be able to “cherry-pick” bits of the single market unless it is prepared to be a full member, which means agreeing to free movement of people, says Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform.
The EU’s initial focus is on getting a pact to let youngsters travel to Britain and on extending a deal on fishing rights – both ideas the UK is not keen on.
To be fair, Starmer has also called for an “ambitious UK-EU security partnership”. This could lead to a bold new special relationship, but only if the partners have a broad understanding of “security”.
The EU and UK understand they need to work more closely on defence. They will have a much better chance of supporting Ukraine and standing up to Russia if they join forces.
Britain’s relatively strong army, nuclear weapons and intelligence expertise are important assets.
One risk is that the EU will favour equipment made within the bloc as it scales up its defence industry.
That would be a missed opportunity. Bruegel, opens new tab, the influential Brussels thinktank, will this week call for a defence mechanism that would include Britain.
British voices, opens new tab including the UK government, opens new tab have already floated similar schemes.
Even this, though, does not go far enough. Security is much broader than defence, as Enrico Letta, the former Italian prime minister, has pointed out, opens new tab.
One can tag “security” onto many topics.
Europe will need greater economic, technological and financial security if the transatlantic trading relationship breaks down.
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The need to abruptly stop Russian gas supplies after the invasion of Ukraine rammed home the importance of energy security. Climate change underlines the need for environmental security.
In all these areas, Britain and the EU will be stronger together. Integrating energy networks will boost security and cut costs.
The City of London could contribute to the EU’s plan to create a “capital markets union” that channels Europe’s savings to productive investment.
The UK has much to offer in other areas such as artificial intelligence, especially if Europe ends up buying fewer services from the U.S.
The EU and Britain will also have a better chance of salvaging parts of the rules-based international order, including free trade, if they join forces.
They could form a nucleus around which other democracies such as Japan, Canada, India, Brazil and Mexico could rally.
THINK BIG
Trump would detest the idea of Britain and the EU clubbing together – partly because it could reduce U.S. power and partly because he dislikes the bloc.
He might try to wreck an ambitious European security partnership by threatening sanctions or trying to peel the UK away from the EU with a trade deal of his own.
Such a scenario will make Starmer cautious. He does not wish to antagonise Trump. He rightly wishes to protect business ties and does not want the U.S. to abandon Ukraine, let alone NATO.
But Britain is closer to the EU than the U.S. in terms of strategic interests and values. There will also be a bigger economic opportunity from working with the EU than there will ever be as a junior partner in an unequal relationship with an unreliable Trump.
Even after the Brexit hit, Britain’s total trade, opens new tab with the EU of 795 billion pounds in 2023 at was 2.7 times larger than that with the U.S.
To craft a special relationship, the EU will have to show some flexibility and start treating the UK as more than just any other non-member.
Starmer, for his part, will have to stop worrying that the British people are allergic to closer relations with the bloc.
Only 30% now think it was right to vote to leave the EU, according to YouGov, opens new tab. Nearly two-thirds want a closer relationship with the EU, and 55% would like to rejoin.
