After Diplomatic Blitz on Ukraine and Gaza, Trump Retreats to Passenger Seat
In late August, Pentagon officials gathered European diplomats and delivered a blunt warning: U.S. security assistance to Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia would be scaled back. The three NATO members on Russia’s border, they were told, must prepare to rely less on Washington.
David Baker, a senior Pentagon official, drove the point home—under President Donald Trump, the U.S. military would be focusing inward, prioritizing homeland defense.
Some European diplomats worried the shift would embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin. On Friday, their fears seemed to materialize. Estonia reported that Russian MiG-31 jets violated its airspace for about 10 minutes before being intercepted by Italian F-35s. Hours later, Poland said Russian jets buzzed an oil platform, following recent drone incursions. Moscow denied both claims.
Trump’s response was slow and subdued. After several hours, he warned the Estonia incident could spell “big trouble.” Following last week’s drone episode in Poland, he had only posted cryptically on Truth Social: “Here we go!”
The restrained reactions highlight a broader pivot. After months of inserting himself into global crises, Trump has recently pulled back, pressing allies to shoulder more responsibility while turning his focus to domestic priorities such as crime, immigration, and what he calls “violent left-wing extremism.”
Return to Old Habits
Trump’s hesitation is not entirely surprising. He campaigned on the argument that America was militarily overstretched, earning him the label of “isolationist.” Yet over the summer, he briefly defied that reputation—authorizing strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in June, promising Patriot systems to Ukraine, and threatening sweeping sanctions on Russia.
By September, however, Trump appeared to revert. At one tense call with European leaders, he accused them of expecting the U.S. to “bail them out” while still funding Russia’s war machine through oil purchases. Days later, he demanded the EU slap 100% tariffs on China and India for buying Russian oil, calling it a precondition for U.S. action.
Aaron David Miller, a veteran diplomat and analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Trump may simply have concluded that the conflicts are more intractable than he had hoped. “He’s not interested in doing anything unless he sees that the expenditure of effort and political capital will be worth the return,” Miller said.
Frustrated Allies, Cautious White House
Europe’s diplomats, once buoyed by Trump’s summer of engagement, are increasingly fatigued by his volatility. They warn that a softer U.S. line risks encouraging more aggressive Russian behavior.
“The more America steps back, the more provocative Putin becomes—he senses weakness and division in Europe,” said Alex Plitsas, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
At the June NATO summit, Trump praised European allies and expanded security cooperation through the new PURL program. But his high-profile Alaska meeting with Putin yielded no breakthrough, and his decision not to make a ceasefire in Ukraine a precondition for peace marked a significant concession to Moscow’s position.
Now, Washington’s muted reaction to recent Russian provocations is raising new doubts about U.S. resolve. Despite pleas from the Baltic states to reverse aid cuts, a White House official insisted: “Many of our European allies are among the world’s wealthiest countries. They are fully capable of funding these programs if they choose.”
Whether Friday’s airspace incursion forces Trump to change course remains uncertain. For now, allies are bracing for more zigzags from a president whose foreign policy instincts remain as unpredictable as ever.
